Navigating Through a Crisis: Five Potential Patterns that Might Lead You Off Course

 

We are dealing with some stuff right now – a truly global pandemic – in the era of global interdependence. 

We’d like to believe that as humans we are super adaptable and ready for anything. But the truth is, history shows that our selective attention can take us the wrong way (for an example, take this short video test by Chabris & Simons here).   

I’ve had some experiences with big external disruptions (six recessions, a flooded “critical to function” factory and a global pipeline full of scrap parts) as well as accountability to put the train back on the tracks.  Each time we move through these external shocks, there are patterns that show up that keep us from being our best.

If we had a cup of coffee (and I’m having a lot of these “virtually” right now), I’d share that the bottom line is we will get through this – together – although it may not be as quickly as we would like. 

I’d also share that our  “business as usual” approach has the potential to slow us down and take us down some unproductive paths. We can be slow to assimilate new information and refresh our fact base, have a hard time pivoting to the most important, and cling to views of normalcy that no longer serve us.

But by being aware of those tendencies, we can consciously be better together.

Five Patterns That Can Derail Your Leadership and Team Performance

Let’s look at a few of those known human patterns so that you can better understand how to identify them and pivot as needed. These are things that can inform what we need to do to deal with the present, while also readying ourselves for the future.

#1: The tendency to not refresh our frame often enough.  OODA is an acronym developed by John Boyd to help train fighter pilots (see my earlier article here).  It stands for observe, orient, decide and act, and is the fundamental cycle that all strategy is based on.  Relative to today’s pandemic challenges is that most of us will not be running the cycle often enough. But during times like this, we need to run through this cycle daily.  

Question: Which key data are you watching to inform your view of the current crisis?  How has it changed?

Pivot: It’s easy to fixate on one piece of data, but it’s important to read more authors and views to get a stronger grasp on the underlying data. 

 

#2: Pareto – This is the well established 80/20 rule stating that 80% of the output is driven by 20% of the input.  When we are restarting global supply chains, it is very important to ruthlessly prioritize those elements that drive positive economic outcomes and do those first.  Problem-solving resources will be overwhelmed if an effective filter of prioritization is not established. This is especially true for supply chain restoration, where quickly finding and working the single point of failure items is critical.

Question:  How resilient is your personal or professional “supply chain?”  Which of your upstream or downstream partners is vulnerable?

Pivot:  During times of crisis it’s important for all members of the supply chain to come to support its most critical members.

 

#3: Normalcy Bias – This is the human tendency to retain the last known frame or viewpoint, and assume that after disruption everything will “snap back” to normal.  During times of disruption, this simply is not true and the tendency to cling to the past can put us in a critical position. This current challenge will confront what people assume is settled thinking about credit, supply chains, and globalization (to name a few) for a long time.

Question: What views are you holding on to that might have changed during this crisis?

Pivot:  Separate your thinking into what was normal, what is normal for now and what is the new normal.

 

#4: Perfectionistic Bias – This is the very human tendency to find something to fix, stay focused on it until it’s perfect, then move on to the next thing.  You’ll see this in a variety of ways, as people run out of willpower and coping skills, and are simply driven by what comes to hand next.  In large-scale disruption, this tendency stops people and teams in their tracks.

Question: What imperfection tends to pull you in?

Pivot:  When in crisis mode, be sure to “time box” your activity to avoid getting pulled into a black hole.

 

#5: Blind Spots  – We as humans come equipped with specific predispositions, strengths, and weaknesses that are part of who we are.  Real-time, they are very hard to see, and when we are moving fast, it’s quite possible for us to make some really sub-optimal decisions.  This can be ok during “peacetime,” but can be the difference between progressing or not when the pressure is really on.

Question: What are your areas of strength and what shadows do they create?

Pivot: Consider running key decisions by a close colleague when you are working through the crisis.

 

The solution for all the above is to form very intentional and productive relationships with others who are different enough from you to be able to help you out of these common “solo” human patterns.  Having strong agreed-to frameworks and vocabulary to share our strengths and blindspots is a very powerful antidote to the tendencies described above.  

If you are facing timely decisions and unexpected challenges during this time, having a strategic partner to talk through potential next steps can be a game-changer. 

Think about who in your organization can be that person for you. And, if you need some outside perspective, I’m here to help. If you’d like to have that virtual cup of coffee with me to talk through any immediate issues, please feel free to reach out at 847-651-1014 or set up an appointment using this link.


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